Bitcoin Price: Bears and Spring Shorts

There have been some stagnant waters for price over the last 24 hours but we have finally moved into more bullish waters! I am going to turn to Charles Stanley to set the tone we have experienced with the recent downturns. He summed it up really well with:

“Fear stifles our thinking and actions. It creates indecisiveness that results in stagnation. I have known talented people who procrastinate indefinitely rather than risk failure. Lost opportunities cause erosion of confidence, and the downward spiral begins.”

There has been some market fear and momentum loss in bitcoin markets as price has fallen from $260 in the beginning of April to the doldrums around $220 and even below that. That said, now the bulls have had a solid run of trade volume that has pushed up back into the $235 range and upper supportive resistance seems to hold at $240 or so. I do not think that this emergent bullish action will push price any higher than a possible target of $240 but if there are emergent buys then a reevaluation might be in order. Should this happen then the order book could slide back into overbought territory with simultaneous price positions lining up smoothly with on target earnings. Here we could find some good short trades and bottlenecked volume profiles, more to follow if this development happens.

I mentioned that significant price increase of about $10 but I know that everyone enjoys a good technical, so let’s take a look at the 30 minute chart:

Flatline action until April 30th until the order book shoots into the green with consecutive buy after buy to get us to $230, though there was some minimal selling in between the greens. From here on out the technicals are going to get much more interesting in the long-term if this bullish action can keep pressure and upper resistance bands high. Market structure has shifted somewhat but the bears had held the market for a long period of time and there is still a possible run back into sub $200 prices but I do not think this will happen anytime soon. I will not make any committed calls other than what I have said so far about bearish conditions and possible shorts, that said it looks more and more favorable as the market ticks on.

Yesterday we talked about geometric mean but today’s word is on the debt side, behold subordinated debt:

“A loan (or security) that ranks below other loans (or securities) with regard to claims on assets or earnings. [Where] In the case of default, creditors with subordinated debt wouldn’t get paid out until after the senior debt holders were paid in full. Therefore, subordinated debt is more risky than unsubordinated debt.”

I had promised more stats today about geometric mean but debt is also an interesting market meditation, especially when shareholders can get paid in a different tiered order if an entity enters bankruptcy and the eventual asset liquidation and distribution to creditors. This next month I am going to start an introduction to trading, reading technicals, market analysis, and so on. Happy trading!